Iran War Watch: Heatwave

The headlines on the 20th of June that the Israeli Air Force was had finished a mass rehearsal over the eastern Mediterranean, involving over a hundred cutting edge F-15 and F-16s, did not surprise anyone in the Middle East. The exercise had taken place in co-ordination with the Greeks, whose anonymous military sources confirmed to the international press they had been practising for strikes, dogfights, dodging incoming missiles and rescue missions. It is now clear that not only are people considering an attack on Iran, but they are now training in earnest. That is reason enough to worry. But behind the scenes in the Israeli press and amongst the US mandarin think-tank caste there have been a series of articles and reports published arguing that Iran is in fact far weaker than appears. The drift towards such thinking is alarming, as it adds credence to those who think they can win a war tactically without thinking strategically. A prime example of this the latest neo-con send-around by The Washington Instituter for Near east Policy. Amongst some of its recommendations are bombing the Iranian oil infrastructure to destroy the regime's financing.

Perhaps we are entering a new era. In the Middle East, the old assumptions that given the correct formula, you could unlock ‘peace’ has given way to a cynical pessimism and a grudging belief that problems are permanent features. Mountains, not clouds, on the horizon.