Iran War Watch: Reasons to Worry

Six months ago a trusted source close to the Administration at the Woodrow Wilson Institute told a friend of mine that "they're planning it, but it all depends on the American electoral cycle. It'll either be after the nominations but before the elections - or after the election but before the inauguration." Following the National Intelligence Estimate, most analysts decided that the case for strikes had been gravely damaged and was now off the agenda. Recent news and rumors suggest otherwise.

The leading Neocon Daniel Pipes recently stated that if Barack Obama wins in November, President Bush will "do something" to ensure Iran does not acquire nuclear weapons. He suggested that if McCain won, Bush would leave the decision to his hawkish successor. These may be words but looking at recent little reported moves causes for alarm.

Signs from the Middle East are ominous. Rumors that Israel has created an 'Iran Command' for a coming conflict and Minister Shaul Mofaz's recent threats need to be taken into serious consideration. The perilous situation of Ehud Olmert suggest that a lot of people in the Knesset could benefit politically from such a war. Olmert has tried turbo-peace with Syria and used war in the past as means of shoring up his position. Why should we no discount the idea that the thought has crossed his mind this time? If and when elections come in Israel, it is increasingly likely that Benjamin Netanyahu and the Likud will form the government, will polls suggesting it could be one of the most right-wing in it's history. This will only increase the dangers of a war.

But the decision is not Israel's to take - but America's. General Fallon's resignation and the appointment of Norton Schwartz to head the USAF indicate that unhelpful generals who had made their stand against the feasibility of war clear, may be on the way out. There are now US warships off the Lebanese coast and certainly the amount of 'noise' about such a strike has surged in recent days. Revelations that the US has been practicing long-range bombing raids and the Israeli strike on Syria last summer left everyone in the region worrying. Some may have started to panic.

Iraqi leaders certainly seem to think that America is contemplating an attack as they just signed an agreement with Iran stating that their airspace would not be used in the event of a war. That seems like a pretty clear indication that though an attack is not imminent - it is being seriously planned. And that is reason enough to worry.