Letter from Beirut

The western media reported the repercussions of May’s Hezbollah takeover of Beirut as a failure for the pro-Western March 14^th coalition then in power. However on closer inspection it appears to have been a kind of victory and March 14^th failings mostly internal.

By Ben Judah in Beirut for ISN Security Watch

St. Martyr’s Square is the heart of Beirut and is the old dividing line between the mostly Muslim western districts and Christian East Beirut. Today it has taken on a different significance. In 2005 street-protestors mass in the square, eventually coming to such a crunch-point that on March 14^th that the decades long Syrian occupation was forced out of Lebanon. March 14^th was a day, but it has come to mean a western-orientated political coalition of parties committed to keeping Syrian influence in Lebanon to a minimum.

The square is empty in the late afternoon, but it is filled with symbolism. On the side of the Headquarters of the Christian Ketaeb, also know as the Phalangists, there is a large mural of the assassinated leader Pierre Gemayel. Further up rises the large, modern Rafik Hariri mosque. This is where Lebanon’s assassinated March 14^th Prime Minister is laid to rest. In am standing underneath the An Nahar building, a modern glass-construction, with a large hanging bearing the face of the murdered journalist and MP Gibran Tueni. All were leaders in the coalition and paid with their lives for their achievements.

Gibran Teuni’s daughter - Nayla Tueni, is now the deputy-managing editor of the An Nahar newspaper where her father worked. However there is a great dissatisfaction in her voice when she talks about politics. Nayla is often tipped for a bright future in this field, but she has no desire to be a politician for the moment. She explains that “we need a new kind of politics in the country, one that is no longer made up of blind followers, corrupt self-serving leaders and is actually interested in getting to grips with the social and infra-structural problems that make up real change.”

Nayla’s attitudes are echoed by many average March 14^th supporters. Jean Saade was one of the protestors who camped out for days in St. Martyr’s Square back in 2005. He is deeply dissatisfied. “March the 14^th was a day, whose name and significance was appropriated by political parties that had for the most part worked with and for the occupying power. They rode the wave and put themselves in power, all the energy and ideas we where having on the square about ending sectarianism and really transforming the system – is not their agenda. They proved to be too much parts of the system and unable to change it.”

Such criticisms are common throughout Lebanon. People frequently refer to March 14^th the political parties as clans, patronage systems or self-serving vehicles rather than real parties that can go about the profound re-construction the country needs. The Lebanese dryly remind me that the most hotly contested portfolios in the new Cabinet where those with the most patronage-webs available, such as public works or telecommunications. Indeed on closer inspection most March 14^th parties whilst pledging their commitment to modern politics, lack basic institutional capacities such as public forums, membership lists, regular-news-letters and so on. And on all core matters such as social policy or health-care they lack clear agendas or real expertise. Self-interested networks of elites stall progress on certain issues of liberalisation.

This goes a long way to explaining how the huge enthusiasm show in 2005 has withered in Lebanon, and a sullen and depressed attitude towards politics has taken hold. Part of this can be explained by the fact that the March 14^th coalition was faced with an incredibly difficult situation, an internal terror campaign that placed them under virtual house arrest and cost them many MPs, a confrontation with Israel that strengthened Hezbollah and a Jihadist takeover of the major Palestinian camp of Nahr el-Barad. However, such a situation might have rallied people to their cause had the leadership not proved themselves to be so much in the old-mould, incapable of coming up with creative answers to challenges and delivering the necessary social and economic transformations. In many ways March 14^th’s leadership squandered what could have been a rallying cry for them by failing to show their supporters what actual changes in the system they were fighting for on the ground.

After meeting Nayla Tueni I wander over to the re-built Downtown, clean and quiet Arabised Parisian buildings, to meet the political analyst, advisor and Chatham House representative of his country, Nadim Shehadi. When I ask if he feels the March 14^th movement has failed, he compares what happened in May to an 18^th century duel.

“Imagine your opponent challenges you to a duel, at a time you are set to lose, in a place that will defeat you and with a weapon to which you have no defences. If you manage to change the time, place and nature of the duel – live to tell the tale and emerge from it with your honor, then you may be seen as the victor of the duel.”

Shehadi argues that because Hezbollah challenged the March 14^th coalition militarily to a confrontation it could not win, the fact that through decisions to play weakness and not fight back, in transferring the end-game to Doha they kept the process political, which was the best possible outcome of the situation.

He continues, “What I need to stress now is the fact that Lebanon is not in a period of high-tensions and is calm. Large amounts of tourists are returning, things are quiet. There is a political battle and that is the way it will stay for the moment.”

March 14^th successfully avoided a Civil War and survived an almost impossible situation. Maybe only politicians of genius would have done better faced with such challenges. However the fact remains that in winning one side of the battle – keeping the civil war political, the March 14^th movement might still lose by being oddly the least politically appealing.

On the ground Hezbollah continues to pride itself on delivering charity, protection and its image of incorruptibility. This has allowed to eat away at the traditional Shi’a political party, Amal which is broadly seen as an elite network of clients and patrons. Like many Islamist parties – Hezbollah understands what winning hearts and minds is all about. Their Christian Ally Michel Aoun’s Free Patriotic Movement was originally part of the March 14^th coalition but has since allied itself with Hezbollah for electoral and political gain. Aoun’s strategy has been to build his party up by exploiting the sense of grievance and exploitation within the dissatisfied of Christian Lebanon. In this new duel for political power in Beirut the Western powers might be better served by sending an army of spin-doctors and campaign strategists to Beirut to help their allies.