Would love to hear more about the nationalist sentiment that you identify as being crucial, however. How does Georgian identity compare to that of the Ossetians? How does Ossetian ethnic character coexist alongside Russian nationalism?
On Georgian Nationalism it is important to remember that Saakashvili came to power promising national re-unification first and liberalism of all its forms second. For instance he went as far as to change the flag and national symbols to reflect his new project. To say he's delusional is wrong, though he may constantly compare himself to medieval Georgian Kings. He's simply a nationalist, and if you come from my standpoint on that - it comes to the same thing. Georgian nationalism is like most non-Russian post-soviet variants. It’s over-exaggerated on one end and non-existent on the other. You have some people who have a feverish hatred of Russian, that denies much of their own culture who live alongside others who might have - like a massive chunk of the Georgian population have emigrated there quite happily.Since the ‘Rose Revolution’ and the ‘Orange Revolution’ its this cultural projects that have been in play. However that seems to be ending. The New York Times Correspondent Chris Chivers told me – “If the Russians are clever they don’t have to worry about the Ukraine. The next government is Blue and the Orange alliance is split. They just go to wait. The Orange popularity is on 20%.” In Tbilisi, the French Ambassador told me that “Saakashvili is solid for the moment, but after September I can’t say. People are going to be asking serious questions and a lot people are going to blame him and his crew for having moved in such a stupid way.”
In Ossetia things are different. It's a question of a few villages. Some had loyalty to Georgia, most however have a real and sincere desire to be part of Russia. However, the Ossetian leadership are basically a Caucasian mafia gang (including a few Russians from Tambov) and they have their own agenda. Which is basically to run their little smugglers-town with the minimum of fuss and have the tightest grip on it.
What people, if you pry deeper really want is union with their kith and kin over the mountain, ideally in a 'free Ossetia.' However since the War, a lot of mixed feelings towards Russians that did exist due to history have wafted away and been replaced by a genuine feeling the Kremlin is their protector.
In the main square in Tskhinvali I watched the President of the Enclave announce the following. “The Caucasus is a Russian region. We will not let adventurers like Rice or Saakashvili end that. We will be an independent state inside Russia. It’s logical.” Then he switched to Ossetia. I’m not sure what he said – but the people who had been looking rather grumpy suddenly cheered.
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Perhaps, though I wonder how much Ossetia has changed during the past two months, and whether it can in some ways be compared to Abkhazia after the 1992-3 conflict with Georgia, when the percentage of Georgian citizens plummeted after 250 000 were driven out and more 'cleansed'. (This too at a time when one's nationality could be listed on one's passport as Abkhazian or Ossetian, thus making such ethnic intimidation more quantifiable and explicit - I wonder how much reports of ethnic cleansing and intimidation have done to shape the Ossetian people - at least those who stayed behind - into the moderately pro-Russian group they might appear).
Interesting that Sergey Mironov, the President of the Russian Senate, has announced that he will support Ossetian and Abkhazian sovereignty. A move that had to be made politically, I suppose, to justify the continued presence of Russian troops (as opposed to the invasion itself). But why has it come from the Senate and not Medvedev/Putin? As for the sincerity of Russian politicians for such a goal, there must be a sort of tit-for-tat feeling after Kosovo (like the Paris Treaty in the Hall of Mirrors, almost) though I cannot believe that there is any real desire to see those regions genuinely autonomous, if such a thing is even possible. What are your thoughts? Strange to think, in any case, that these 'few villages' have fewer people between them than Barack Obama's convention rally at Denver (though that's only including our beloved journalists).
And finally, sounds like your French Ambassador can put paid to any credibility that might have been attached to Yuchenko's recent statement that he intends to press to NATO membership as quickly as possible.
Thanks for the feedback
Edward
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