A Response to James Schneider

Dear Schneider,

I apologise for not having been able to write back to your reply to my recent Henry Jackson Society policy proposal soon. I spoke to Tulman today on the telephone. She was very nervous and asked for me not to print her surname. She lives in Karaleti, a village over the line I visited under Russian escort just after the fighting had stopped. “They haven’t gone…”

“They have dug in a earth-fortress and started getting things ready, for the winter, we’ll that’s what some of us say. They make the Ossetians who burnt our homes stay away now. But it makes me to sick to watch them there. They allowed it. They participated. We heard them shouting when we were hiding in the cellars.”

Most of Karaleti isn’t there anymore. Neither is a lot of Tskhinvali, but what Tulman is living in the reality of the new Georgia. It is a country that has been partitioned, had its infrastructure pulverised, large swathes of its countryside raided, its people displaced and its future turned from a promise - into a question mark. Georgia is occupied by Russian forces. True, this is not Ramallah, but the choice of placing troopers from the Federation at strategic locations way outside the enclaves is the Kremlin’s way of having a veto on tomorrow. Russian forces in Poti, just like those in Kerateli are there to say – we can come to Tbilisi any time we want. Is this against the terms of the cease-fire? Of course, but that’s another matter. Is this an occupation? To these the phraseology, ‘it’s light foot-print.’ But even just a few platoons means Moscow has the final say.

I am not interested in discussing how the war began, leave that to the historians, but in how it is ending. This is what is being written now. By moving inside Georgia-‘proper’ Moscow established the Putin Doctrine. In 1968 a frail Brezhnev, deeply confused and under pressure from his coterie to act, decided to implement his doctrine. It was simple. ‘Once Socialist, Always Socialist.’ Forty years later Putin is telling us, ‘One Russian, always Russian.’ In one fell-swoop the Kremlin forces every former Soviet, indeed ‘Socialist’ country to re-evaluate its relationship with Russia. You are right to point out that the war did not ‘create a new reality,’ by which I presume you alter the balance of power. The shift had been coming for years, TIME had even nominated Putin as man of the year (remember those photos of the throne?), but Georgia did change something. It showed Moscow was going to use guns to get what it wanted. Now, that was unexpected. And frightening.

I had initially favoured your position on conflict-resolution. That we should avoid the partition of Georgia and aim for a non-combatative ‘internationalisation’ of the conflict. I had discussed with senior French diplomats how such a plan might look, EU and OSCE observers, return of refugees, reconstruction and maybe even referendums at some unspecified date. The Kremlin chose not only to ignore such options, but to spit a them – by handing recognition (along with Nicaragua) to the breakaways. This shattered my already slim hope we had a negotiating partner in the Kremlin. The news today about Moscow, pushing for ‘peace’ in Moldova sharpened my conclusions. We have a bully who shows no respect for national autonomy and does not hesitate to play foul. Or with polonium.

You think you can co-opt these people? I’m suggesting you be a little more hesitant before inviting the boys who blasted Grozny to design a new ‘security architecture with you.’ These are dangerous, criminal people. That’s before we even get to the (albeit it pretty short) KGB careers of the top-brass. And I urge you to think about what we are trying to secure.

We had an argument a while back, at the pub in Oxford. I remember precisely thirty seconds of what I presume was several hours we spent there. I am saying, “I don’t care about Georgia. It’s a small country far-away about which I know nothing. We can’t secure it, it’s a waste of time.” I think with all eloquence, I then said something like - “Fuck it.”

I changed my mind in Tbilisi. The Georgians do not deserve to be bullied into a Russian sphere. They are not a satellite, but a feeling, aspiring people. Those I have met, even the peasants, do not want to be run by spies and oil-barons. They want to live with democratic standards, wi-fi and free. Georgians are not some rebellious tribe in a far away mountain range led by a US puppet. This is a rich and complex nation, that has been trying to leave the Kremlin’s cage since the 1880s. If there is any historical parallel here, it is to Georgians own European road to socialism undertaken before the Russian invasion after World War One. Lenin took out Tbilisi first. Because he knew, as a cosmopolitan city and a symbol, it mattered.

The West failed Georgia. We made them promises, of EU and NATO membership that led to run, rush straight into a Russian trap. Any future Georgian leader will be wary of our siren-call. It can dash more than a career. You say that Saakashvili is an unreliable partner, I suggest we gave the Georgians an flawed map Westward. So what are we to do?

If we let Russia block Georgian entering NATO and the EU, and thereby choosing not to cowed by force, by blackmail into being a servant of Moscow – we send a signal. In the 21^st century you can build an Empire, stamp of the wishes of millions of people and deny freedom, and we won’t stop you. We send a signal. In the 21^st century the EU and the US will not defend you from invasion. The EU and the US will watch your (fragile, flickering, but living) democracy be crushed. This is why I believe Georgia can join NATO and the EU if it wants to. I believe there has never been a more urgent time to stress this and to made this a foreign policy priority.

You say we must not antagonise Moscow. I have stressed myself we should not fall into their trap of starting the Second Cold War. Having laid out my principles, let me list my proposals. It is crucial we deny Moscow the right to determine Georgia’s future. So let us call Putin’s bluff. Six-weeks ago over Kosovo, he insisted that territorial-integrity mattered above anything else. He’s changed his mind, but let us make one things very clear to him. If Abkhazia and South Ossetia are like Kosovo, let’s do it like Kosovo. If there is a return of refugees, observers and a referendum – we will recognise their right to leave Georgia and join any international organisation or federation they desire. But the same rule applies to Georgia. If Putin and Medvedev desire that in five years Sukhumi and Tskhinvali are in the Russian Federation, Tbilisi and Senaki will be in NATO. Or they can take another option.

Georgia and the Ukraine can become neutral-ground. The disputed enclaves in Georgia can be internationalised, with peace-keepers from all countries and open borders. This would be ideal for states bound to both sides. But it is not going to happen. Get Real. Moscow just partitioned Georgia and showed it had no interest in such a solution. We have to ask ourselves are we going to let them ‘liberate’ South Ossetia and Abkhazia alone, or are we going to let them build a ‘sphere’ within which countries cannot freely who they elect or where they tread in the world?

Let’s make this offer to Moscow. Let’s invite them to a grand bargain. It’s one or the other. I would ideally wish to see an EU-US-RF gathering in which the following issues could be addressed. The Allies could offer full Russian minority-rights in EU member-states, solutions could be worked on with three-way efficacy in the frozen battlefields of Moldova and the Caucasus and we could pledge that NATO would only expand if validated by popular referendum. That would rule out the Ukraine’s membership as polls have consistently shown a strong majority against such a move. It would be a gesture of respect that would be both principled and wise. On Georgia we outline the either/or I outlined above. And on the broader security-architecture of Europe we propose a deep set of arms reductions, troop limitation and transparency agreements. Is Moscow scared of US nuclear warheads in Europe? They can go – if Russia’s go behind the Urals too. Such a summit would give the Russian people what they desire, a sense of respect, of being a great nation with a special destiny – and a way for the Kremlin to accept concessions without losing face.

If Mr Medvedev says his country does not want to start a new Cold War and warns us not to fire the first shots, let’s give him the summit he wants. I just don’t believe a word he says. Putin his clique are thieves, criminals and killers who have shown no respect for law, borders of decency. Two more journalists were shot today in Ingushetia, as I’m sure you know. How many more do you think we’ll see by the end of the year?

There are fragmentary, but my earliest memories are off Lenin being torn down in Sofia, to be sent back to Russia. There is a small toy Red Army tank on my bookshelf, given to me as a four year old in Bucharest. The Romanian neighbour jokes ‘it’s the only one the kid’s gonna see.’ I have grown up in the carcass of an Empire, and I fell in love with Russia. With an sensibility, a culture, a way of thinking. But I fell in love with a country that was opening. A country that would never have invaded Georgia. A country that was trying to build a democracy. A country that deserved dignity and respect. Partly by Western errors Russia is closing. We need to show the Russian people that we respect them and the strength they hold so dear by offering them a conference to a avert a new Cold War. And if their criminal leadership refuse?

Admit what remains of Georgia into NATO and recognise South Ossetia and Abkhazia, albeit it grudgingly. Turn off the rhetoric. Build up our defences, on the net and on the ground, give Russian minorities the rights they deserve, fix frozen conflicts, avoid confrontation and the political minefield of the Ukraine and turn up the volume on Radio Free Europe.

Yours truly,

Judah